Wednesday, May 02, 2007
02/05/07 – WELSH DEMOCRACY
I was listening to BBC Wales, a week or two ago now, and they were saying that because of the intense media coverage of the Scottish election there was a different election strategy forming within Wales.
It seems because the main focus of the television media was on the Scottish parliamentary election and the majority of newspapers are London based and therefore do not promote Welsh matters as they are primarily concerned with what happens within London, everywhere else being foreign to them, with no differential between French presidential elections and the Welsh assembly election, in fact the French presidential election is probably attaining a higher proportion of coverage than the Welsh assembly. Nevertheless this is forcing the creation of a new style of election campaign in Wales.
Due to the lack of media, mass mobilisation of public opinion and therefore large turnouts is impossible. The parties are unwilling to yell about an election in case they alert supporters of the opposition parties and bring them out to vote, because, there are a lot of labour voters in Wales, (just in case that you don’t know) and if they thought that the bogyman party (commonly known as the conservatives) would get in then they would mobilise and get out to vote. Even though they don’t believe that the labour party are doing a good job or that they are still representing them, some communities have become so entrenched in their support that it forms part of their identity and they can not foresee voting for someone else, so if they don’t want to vote labour they don’t vote! Hence the quip, you can pin a red rosette on a donkey and have it elected. And also hence, labours election campaign ploy to suggest that every party other than labour would enter into a coalition government with the conservatives.
Although it must be noted labour has strayed so far from the values and culture of welsh communities it is becoming possible for other people to win, people like the late Peter Law, and latterly Trish Law, who represent traditional labour values not new labour.
I forgot what I was saying.
Yes so to stop alerting the die hard supporters of the other parties, political parties are playing a low key election campaign targeting known supporters only through internet, emails, telephones etc…rather than high profile election campaign played out through the media, there is a low profile election. Which will most likely result in a low turnout enabling people to question the legitimacy of the Assembly, but what can be done?
I have previously mentioned that a lack of print media might contribute to a low turnout, however, America has possibly the largest coverage of any election and that struggled to rise above 40% turnout. But in France’s recent presidential election (first round) had over 80% out and the reason being – a vast gulf between the parties on policy and their vision of the direction that France should take. But again this would necessitate the mass publication of political policy in order to accentuate the differences and enthuse people with the thought that their vote can make the difference. So we return to the lack of a print media based in Wales, after all it is proven that it was the ‘Sun’ what won it for the conservatives in 1992 after they published a front page spread of how damaging labour would be to the economy. The Independent on the 2nd May 2007 is a case in point it has roughly 15 column inches addressing the Scotland’s election, none regarding Welsh election there is an editorial piece entitled ‘Separatism and scare tactics’, but again this article is centred on the Scottish election. However, there is a double page spread on the battle between the two remaining French presidential candidates for the support of people who voted for Francois Bayrou. Why is there such a lack of information the day before the election in Wales and Scotland?
I am very eager now to know the turnout for tomorrow’s election.
¶ 7:11 PM It seems because the main focus of the television media was on the Scottish parliamentary election and the majority of newspapers are London based and therefore do not promote Welsh matters as they are primarily concerned with what happens within London, everywhere else being foreign to them, with no differential between French presidential elections and the Welsh assembly election, in fact the French presidential election is probably attaining a higher proportion of coverage than the Welsh assembly. Nevertheless this is forcing the creation of a new style of election campaign in Wales.
Due to the lack of media, mass mobilisation of public opinion and therefore large turnouts is impossible. The parties are unwilling to yell about an election in case they alert supporters of the opposition parties and bring them out to vote, because, there are a lot of labour voters in Wales, (just in case that you don’t know) and if they thought that the bogyman party (commonly known as the conservatives) would get in then they would mobilise and get out to vote. Even though they don’t believe that the labour party are doing a good job or that they are still representing them, some communities have become so entrenched in their support that it forms part of their identity and they can not foresee voting for someone else, so if they don’t want to vote labour they don’t vote! Hence the quip, you can pin a red rosette on a donkey and have it elected. And also hence, labours election campaign ploy to suggest that every party other than labour would enter into a coalition government with the conservatives.
Although it must be noted labour has strayed so far from the values and culture of welsh communities it is becoming possible for other people to win, people like the late Peter Law, and latterly Trish Law, who represent traditional labour values not new labour.
I forgot what I was saying.
Yes so to stop alerting the die hard supporters of the other parties, political parties are playing a low key election campaign targeting known supporters only through internet, emails, telephones etc…rather than high profile election campaign played out through the media, there is a low profile election. Which will most likely result in a low turnout enabling people to question the legitimacy of the Assembly, but what can be done?
I have previously mentioned that a lack of print media might contribute to a low turnout, however, America has possibly the largest coverage of any election and that struggled to rise above 40% turnout. But in France’s recent presidential election (first round) had over 80% out and the reason being – a vast gulf between the parties on policy and their vision of the direction that France should take. But again this would necessitate the mass publication of political policy in order to accentuate the differences and enthuse people with the thought that their vote can make the difference. So we return to the lack of a print media based in Wales, after all it is proven that it was the ‘Sun’ what won it for the conservatives in 1992 after they published a front page spread of how damaging labour would be to the economy. The Independent on the 2nd May 2007 is a case in point it has roughly 15 column inches addressing the Scotland’s election, none regarding Welsh election there is an editorial piece entitled ‘Separatism and scare tactics’, but again this article is centred on the Scottish election. However, there is a double page spread on the battle between the two remaining French presidential candidates for the support of people who voted for Francois Bayrou. Why is there such a lack of information the day before the election in Wales and Scotland?
I am very eager now to know the turnout for tomorrow’s election.
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I'm not sure that this is as true in this election as it has been in others. I have been canvassed more this year than I have in the previous ten years. But then I live in one of the "exiting" seats Aberconwy. (Although the only candidate who hasn't made an appearance is the incumbent AM)
In the 2003 election I put a poster of the Plaid candidate in my window and I was asked by one of his supporters to remove it because it was informing opponents, who were otherwise unlikely to vote, about the election.
Between 1999 and 2003 Plaid lost a total of a 1/4 million votes - not to other candidates but to indifference. (Only the Tories had more votes in 2003 than in 1999 and they only had a tad over 1,000 more votes). As I have been asked to display a poster this time I suspect that Plaid may have learned a lesson about hiding elections since 2003.
In the 2003 election I put a poster of the Plaid candidate in my window and I was asked by one of his supporters to remove it because it was informing opponents, who were otherwise unlikely to vote, about the election.
Between 1999 and 2003 Plaid lost a total of a 1/4 million votes - not to other candidates but to indifference. (Only the Tories had more votes in 2003 than in 1999 and they only had a tad over 1,000 more votes). As I have been asked to display a poster this time I suspect that Plaid may have learned a lesson about hiding elections since 2003.
I had a re-think last night, before I read your comment, and i found fault with some of the analysis which i have sought to amend in the new post.
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